Will the 2012 presidential election follow historical trends and benchmarks, or are more complex dynamics at play this year? For the last ?How We?re Doing? Index ahead of Election Day, a team of scholars at the Brookings Institution looked at U.S. economic growth over the past five quarters, which has decelerated while the ?fiscal cliff? and the European financial crisis loom. Historically, high unemployment and poor economic growth have doomed incumbents, yet President Obama?s poll numbers remain relatively stable. Will the November election turn on the state of the national economy, or might relatively better economic conditions in key swing states be enough to carry Obama to reelection?
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